Not even Batman can save Time Warner stock

July 30, 2008

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LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - "The Dark Knight" has taken in $324.3 million at the North American box office so far and is on its way to becoming one of the biggest movies of all time.

Way to go, Warner Bros. It’s already the studio’s biggest film ever, surpassing the $318 million earned domestically by 2001’s "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone."

Now, if only some smart executive could figure out a way for Time Warner shareholders to benefit from all that success.

The stock of Time Warner, the movie studio’s parent company, has languished for years, and even a box office superhero like Batman hasn’t come to shareholders’ rescue. Not yet, at least.

Shares of TW were at $14.70 on July 18, the opening day for "Dark Knight." They closed at $14.36 the following Monday, after the movie shattered the opening-weekend box office record. On Tuesday, the stock traded at $14.57.

For those optimistic shareholders who figure it must be a case of buying the rumor (or in this case, the hype) and selling the news (in this case, the weekend record), that’s just wishful thinking.

Check a TW chart leading up to the film’s record-breaking performance, and it’s all downhill.

One could argue that the "Dark Knight" hype began January 22, the date of the untimely death of Heath Ledger, the actor who plays the Joker. On that day, TW was at $15.06, higher than where it closed Tuesday. And if you figure the hype didn’t really kick into overdrive until the first day of summer, well, the stock has dropped since then, too. Actually, one almost could pick any random day this year and the stock is lower now than it was then.

So it appears that one of the biggest movies of all time has done nothing for shareholders of the company that made the film, distributed it and will collect the bulk of its profits. And let’s not forget that TW also is parent of DC Comics, where Batman was born, so profits ought to be rolling into that unit off of "Dark Knight" as well.

So if TW shareholders aren’t benefiting from the success of "Dark Knight," whose shareholders are?

Mattel’s might be. The day "Dark Knight" opened, Mattel shares jumped 13%. That’s also the day Mattel reported a better-than-expected second-quarter profit and Batman-related toys got some of the credit, along with "Kung Fu Panda" toys.

But Mattel also won a legal victory that day that ultimately might give the company royalties from the popular Bratz dolls franchise, which caused the shares to spike more so than did "Dark Knight."

Nevertheless, if investors were looking to profit from "Dark Knight," they’d have made a killing buying Mattel a few days ahead of the movie’s opening, and they’d have lost money buying shares of TW.

Imax also would have been a better pick than TW. While its shares haven’t budged much since the movie’s opening, they are up 15% in the past month, and it’s hard to argue that "Dark Knight" is not the catalyst.

The movie opened at 94 Imax theaters, and showings were sold out weeks in advance. So popular was "Dark Knight" at Imax theaters on opening weekend that tickets sometimes went for $50 at Internet auction sites like eBay.

But all is not lost for TW, as patient investors eventually will see a "Dark Knight" benefit, if nothing else as a counterweight to the underperformance of "Speed Racer."

"Dark Knight," says Steve Birenberg of Northlake Capital Management, "is a nice confidence booster as the spinoff from cable makes TW more reliant on successful content creation for long-term growth."

Independent production company Legendary Pictures put up more than half the money to make and market the movie, so when it’s all said and done, Birenberg figures that if "Dark Knight" can manage $800 million in worldwide box office, Warners’ take will be roughly $440 million.

Also, Birenberg says, the blockbuster "reminds investors that movies can still be big and profitable, and that supports multiples on stocks of studio owners."

Along those lines, UBS analyst Michael Morris says that TW trades at an operating-income multiple of just 6.9, and he expects that to rise to 8, giving him a $19 target price for TW shares within a year’s time.

But any way you slice it, "Dark Knight" also is proof that no matter how big a movie is, if it’s just one asset at a company expected to bring in annual revenue of $47 billion, it won’t be enough to immediately move the stock much.

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‘The Dark Knight’ stays No. 1 at box office

July 29, 2008

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LOS ANGELES - "The Dark Knight" once again cast its tall shadow over the competition at the box office, reaching the $300 million mark in a record 10 days.

The latest Batman movie, featuring the late Heath Ledger as the Joker, took six fewer days than the 2006 blockbuster "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest" to pull in $300 million.

The top 20 movies at U.S. and Canadian theaters Friday through Sunday, followed by distribution studio, gross, number of theater locations, average receipts per location, total gross and number of weeks in release, as compiled Monday by Media By Numbers LLC:

1. "The Dark Knight," Warner Bros., $75,166,466, 4,366 locations, $17,216 average, $313,781,677, two weeks.

2. "Step Brothers," Sony, $30,940,732, 3,094 locations, $10,000 average, $30,940,732, one week.

3. "Mamma Mia!" Universal, $17,746,725, 2,990 locations, $5,935 average, $62,595,465, two weeks.

4. "The X-Files: I Want to Believe," Fox, $10,021,753, 3,185 locations, $3,147 average, $10,021,753, one week.

5. "Journey to the Center of the Earth," Warner Bros., $9,717,217, 2,688 locations, $3,615 average, $60,487,455, three weeks.

6. "Hancock," Sony, $8,311,123, 3,309 locations, $2,512 average, $206,482,007, four weeks.

7. "Wall-E," Disney, $6,422,186, 3,044 locations, $2,110 average, $195,308,076, five weeks.

8. "Hellboy 2: the Golden Army," Universal, $5,100,305, 3,018 locations, $1,690 average, $66,059,925, three weeks.

9. "Space Chimps," Fox, $4,536,838, 2,538 locations, $1,788 average, $16,167,380, two weeks.

10. "Wanted," Universal, $2,738,550, 1,754 locations, $1,561 average, $128,627,405, five weeks.

11. "Get Smart," Warner Bros., $2,272,394, 1,420 locations, $1,600 average, $124,186,385, six weeks.

12. "Kung Fu Panda," Paramount, $1,055,932, 917 locations, $1,152 average, $208,997,686, eight weeks.

13. "Kit Kittredge: An American Girl," Picturehouse, $601,888, 535 locations, $1,125 average, $15,275,168, six weeks.

14. "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull," Paramount, $570,774, 477 locations, $1,197 average, $313,646,685, 10 weeks.

15. "Sex and the City," Warner Bros., $447,444, 347 locations, $1,289 average, $150,841,566, nine weeks.

16. "The Incredible Hulk," Universal, $423,150, 403 locations, $1,050 average, $132,541,330, seven weeks.

17. "Tell No One," Music Box, $421,821, 77 locations, $5,478 average, $1,653,434, four weeks.

18. "You Don’t Mess With the Zohan," Sony, $385,400, 224 locations, $1,721 average, $98,319,368, eight weeks.

19. "Meet Dave," Fox, $381,469, 488 locations, $782 average, $10,839,801, three weeks.

20. "The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian," Disney, $372,519, 322 locations, $1,157 average, $140,117,978, 11 weeks.

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July 15, 2008

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Police: Iraq suicide bombers kill 28 army recruits

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BAQOUBA, Iraq - Two suicide bombers blew themselves up in a crowd of army recruits Tuesday in an Iraqi province where devastating attacks persist despite security improvements in the rest of the country. At least 28 people died, the Iraqi police and military said.

The bombings came ahead of what Iraqi military officials have described as an imminent offensive in troubled Diyala province, northeast of Baghdad. The U.S. military says it will support that effort, which they called an enhancement of existing patrols and actions there.

The blasts at the Saad military camp in Baqouba, the capital of Diyala, recalled the scenes of mass terror and grief that were almost a daily routine in previous years. Violence in Iraq is at its lowest level in about four years.

AP Television News footage showed medical staff unloading white body bags from ambulances, soldiers on their knees weeping over slain comrades and the wounded moaning as they lay on gurneys and even on the bloodstained floor of a hospital room.

The explosions killed 28 people and wounded at least 57 recruits, a police official said. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media.

A military officer in Baqouba, 35 miles (60 kilometers) from Baghdad, confirmed the death toll and said soldiers were among the casualties. He also spoke on the same anonymity condition.

The U.S. military said in a statement that the attack occurred around 8 a.m. It said 20 police recruits were killed and 55 were injured. There was no immediate explanation for the discrepancy in the reports.

Diyala is critical to Baghdad’s security because of its strategic importance as an entrance to the capital and a threat to supply routes going north. The volatile, ethnically mixed area also borders Iran, which the United States has accused of helping militants to stage attacks on American troops.

Last year, U.S. troops largely subdued militancy in Baqouba, which had been held by al-Qaida in Iraq and other Sunni extremist groups. But many insurgents were believed to have melted away and now appear to be regrouping.

Loyalists of Saddam Hussein’s regime had homes in Buhriz, a southern suburb of Baqouba, and the area served as a staging ground for Sunni attacks that drove Shiites out of the city.

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, was killed by a U.S. airstrike in Diyala province in June 2006.

On June 22, a female suicide bomber concealing explosives beneath her black robe struck outside a government complex in Baqouba. At least 15 people were killed and more than 40 were wounded. A car bomb across the street from the same compound killed at least 40 people in April.

The decline in violence in Iraq has been driven by a variety of factors, including the 2007 U.S. troop surge and a Sunni revolt against al-Qaida in Iraq. U.S.-backed Iraqi forces have scored successes in offensives against Shiite militants in Baghdad’s Sadr City district and the southern cities of Basra and Amarah, and against Sunni extremists in Mosul in the north.

Iraq’s Interior Ministry spokesman, Maj. Gen. Abdul-Karim Khalaf, said Sunday that the government’s planned operation in Diyala would be "the last surge."

Al-Mada, an Iraqi newspaper, on Tuesday reported Khalaf as saying that the file on the Diyala operation had been handed to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who will decide when to launch it.

Also Tuesday, the U.S. military said it had captured the Iranian-trained leader of an explosives cell in the Adhamiyah district of Baghdad. It said the suspect has been linked to attacks against U.S. and Iraqi bases in the capital.

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Actress Evelyn Keyes dies at 91 in California

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LOS ANGELES (AP) — Evelyn Keyes, who played Scarlett O’Hara’s younger sister Suellen in "Gone With the Wind" and counted director John Huston and bandleader Artie Shaw among her famous husbands, has died. She was 91.

The actress died July 4 of uterine cancer at her home in Montecito, near Santa Barbara, producer and close friend Allan Glaser said Friday.

Glaser said the news was withheld because lawyers wanted to wait until the death certificate was filed.

Keyes’ personal life often overshadowed her acting career. Besides her often turbulent marriages to Shaw and directors Huston and Charles Vidor, she lived with the flamboyant producer Mike Todd for three years during his preparation and filming of "Around the World in 80 Days." She played a cameo role in the movie and helped on publicity.

Todd sent her to the premiere in Caracas, then called her abruptly from Paris with this message: "Listen, I have to tell you. I’ve fallen in love with Elizabeth (Taylor)."

"Oh well, nothing lasts forever," she philosophized in 1977. "The good part was that I invested all my money in `Around the World in 80 Days,’ and that set me up for life."

Keyes gave a frank account of her romances and marriages in her 1977 autobiography, "Scarlett O’Hara’s Younger Sister." Her role in the 1939 classic led to a contract at Columbia Pictures and stardom.

Among her notable roles: as Robert Montgomery’s lover in "Here Comes Mr. Jordan" (1941), the Ruby Keeler role as Al Jolson’s wife in "The Jolson Story" (1946), and as Dick Powell’s wife in "Mrs. Mike" (1949).

She also starred in B pictures that were later praised by movie critics as prime examples of film noir: "Johnny O’Clock" (1947), "The Killer That Stalked New York" (1950), "The Prowler" (1951), "99 River Street" (1953) and "The Big Combo" (1955).

Keyes’ marriages and divorces made her the darling of gossip columns and fan magazines. Her first marriage, to a handsome Englishman and heavy drinker named Barton Bainbridge, ended in headlines when he fatally shot himself during a separation.

Vidor, a handsome Hungarian who directed her first Columbia film, "The Lady in Question," became romantically involved with Keyes, though both were married at the time. When her husband committed suicide and Vidor’s wife, actress Karen Morley, divorced him, Vidor and Keyes married. The marriage ended two years later when she discovered he was unfaithful to her as well.

Husband No. 3 was Huston. She was impressed when they met at a Hollywood dinner party, and more impressed when he took her afterward to his Tarzana horse ranch and made no effort to seduce her.

Their marriage in 1946 led to an adventurous life. Just one of the examples she recalled in 1971 involved Huston returning home from the 1949 film "We Were Strangers," with a gift from actress Jennifer Jones, a pet chimpanzee.

"The chimp fell in love with John, and he brought it home to live with us in our all-white apartment."

David Niven wrote in his memoir "Bring on the Empty Horses" that Keyes became exasperated at the non-housebroken animal and issued an ultimatum: "One of us has to go. It’s the monkey or me."

According to Niven, Huston replied, "Honey, it’s you." Keyes reported in her own memoir that it was the chimp that got the boot.

The Huston marriage did end in 1950, however, and Keyes sought analysis to recover from the failure. Her conclusion: "I was always looking for the same man — a strong father figure."

Keyes’ marriage to Shaw in 1957 seemed to follow the same pattern. He had given up his brilliant career as a clarinetist and bandleader and had been seeking intellectual challenges.

Shaw played Henry Higgins to her Eliza Doolittle, giving her a new name, Keri, introducing her to literature and leading her on his world travels. For a time they lived in Spain. After several years she tired of his dominance and they separated. They divorced in 1985.

After Shaw died in 2004 at age 94, she battled in court for a share of his estate, saying he had promised it to her. A jury backed her in 2006, but the executor of the estate vowed to appeal.

Keyes was born in Port Arthur, Texas, in 1916, according to state birth records; some references give a later year. She grew up fatherless and poor in Atlanta. A glowing blond beauty with an alluring figure, she danced in nightclubs and at 17 set out for Hollywood. Cecil B. DeMille signed her to a seven-year contract and cast her in "The Buccaneer."

After a few minor roles at Paramount, she appeared in "Gone With the Wind" and then moved to Columbia, where her career blossomed.

After her film career and marriages ended, she turned author, producing an autobiographical novel, "I Am a Billboard," two memoirs, "Scarlett O’Hara’s Younger Sister" and "I’ll Think About It Tomorrow," film scripts and articles.

Keyes took a frank view of her life and career in a 1999 interview:

"To become a big movie star like Joan Crawford you need to wear blinders and pay single-minded attention to your career. Nobody paid attention to me, including me. I was the original Cinderella girl, looking for the happy ending in the fairy story. But my fantasy prince never came."

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Latest “Hulk” may not spawn a sequel

July 10, 2008

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It’s a tale of two movies, with an oddly similar ending.

Five years ago, "Hulk," the first movie based on Marvel’s hulking green comic book character, rang up $245 million in worldwide box office but was widely dismissed as a commercial failure.

The second attempt, "The Incredible Hulk," amped up the fun factor and dialed down the brooding of director Ang Lee’s original but is unlikely to gross significantly higher than its predecessor and might not spawn a sequel. And it’s been dubbed a success.

"We’re happy with the financial results, even if they (only) reach the first film’s levels," a Marvel insider insisted. "Having a sequel is not the definition of success."

That’s fortunate, as even outpacing the first film’s worldwide haul by 10% looks optimistic at this point, and that’s not likely to stoke enthusiasm for a franchise follow-up anytime soon.

After four weekends, the Louis Leterrier-directed "The Incredible Hulk" has earned $125 million, the same as what "Hulk" had pulled in at the same time in its run. "Hulk" finished with $132 million, and its successor is unlikely to do much better.

Its foreign rollout is still in progress, with comics-friendly Japan among the territories the remake has yet to bow, but it appears likely that the Edward Norton starrer will struggle to reach $130 million internationally. The first film tallied $113.2 million overseas.

Action films tend to outperform internationally, though comic book adaptations can be a different matter if the fan base skews American. Marvel touts the Hulk comic franchise as its second most popular worldwide, after Spider-Man.

"All we can say as a studio is that we are very pleased with the result," Universal domestic distribution president Nikki Rocco said.

Despite the similarity of the Hulk films’ theatrical runs, industryites suggest the lighter tone of the second film makes it more the vehicle to generate sequels, and some suggest the remake will prove a more lucrative DVD title than the Eric Bana-starring original. On the other hand, production costs and marketing expenses were steeper the second time around, totaling more than $200 million. The first film cost about $150 million to make.

Still, the dark original so turned off the Hulk character’s fanboy base as to require a complete reworking of its big-screen rendering before a film franchise could be christened.

But Marvel has yet to greenlight a Hulk sequel. So other observers suggest the films’ most important distinction lies simply in how well market expectations were managed in advance of their respective bows.

"Hollywood is always about perception," said David Davis, managing partner and entertainment analyst at Arpeggio Partners in Los Angeles. "The first Hulk (movie) had such high expectations after the NBC-Universal merger and was supposed to be critical-favorite Ang Lee’s breakout commercial blockbuster.

"Then with the new Hulk film, Marvel was able to underplay the importance of the success after the great success of ‘Iron Man’ this summer," Davis said. "So the new one overdelivered, relative to its underpromise."

The Marvel-produced, Paramount-distributed "Iron Man" has fetched more than $563 million at the worldwide box office.

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